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Behavioral Finance and Decision Theory in Investment by Arnold S. Wood, Amos Tversky, Werner F.M. De Bondt, Meir

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By Arnold S. Wood, Amos Tversky, Werner F.M. De Bondt, Meir Stateman, Leslie Shaw, Visit Amazon's Russell J. Fuller Page, search results, Learn about Author Central, Russell J. Fuller, , Richard S. Pzena, Visit Amazon's David N. Dreman Page, search results,

Behavioral Finance and choice thought in funding administration [Paperback] [Dec 01, 1995] Arnold S. wooden; Amos Tversky; Werner F.M. De Bondt; Meir Stateman; Leslie Shaw; Russell J. Fuller; Richard S. Pzena; David N. Dreman and Horace Woody Brock ... 187908757X

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Earnings Surprises and Investor Overreaction The next issue is what actually happens when analysts' forecasts miss the mark. As mentioned in other presentations, investors appear to extrapolate exciting or unexciting prospects for stocks well into the future. The market has high expectations for the best stocks and very low expectations for stocks that are out of favor. Companies with the best prospects, fastest growth, and most exciting concepts normally have higher PIEs, higher ratios of price to book value and price to cash flow, and so forth.

An example would be positive news from a high-P IE or highly valued stock. People have favorable expectations for the best stocks-improved earnings and other positive events. Similarly, negative news for out-of-favor stocks should have little effect on stock price. If a company is trading at a very low PIE, P IB, or PI CF and is believed to have a mediocre outlook, a negative event is not likely to have a major effect. Apple Computer's performance last year is an example of an event trigger-a positive surprise in an out-of-favor stock.

The major developaround situations, for example. Nobody has a clue ments include the efficient market hypothesis, capiwhether such companies are, in fact, going to tum tal structure theory, portfolio theory, the capital asset around. Overconfident analysts may think they have pricing model, the arbitrage pricing model, and opthose situations figured out, so they come up with a tion-pricing theory. During the next 30 years, modbig optimistic forecast. On average, however, the em finance will be integrated with the behavioral stocks for turnaround companies as a whole exhibit no earnings changes.

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